April 2026 was a relatively calm month for the hryvnia: despite high demand for foreign currency, the NBU carried out substantial foreign currency sales, helping to smooth out peak fluctuations and keep exchange rate movements within a narrow range. At the beginning of the month, the official USD/UAH exchange rate stood at around UAH 43.92, while on 30 April it was approximately UAH 44.08 per dollar. Thus, the hryvnia weakened slightly, but there were no sharp changes. Excessive demand for foreign currency among households declined significantly — net foreign currency purchases by individuals in the cash market fell to $0.34 billion (compared with $0.968 billion in March). Inflation accelerated to 7.9% year-on-year in March, but on 30 April the NBU kept its key policy rate unchanged at 15% to maintain the attractiveness of hryvnia-denominated assets and contain inflation expectations.
Both domestic and external factors put pressure on the exchange rate last month. Depreciation pressure resulted from the merchandise trade deficit and increased household spending (demand for foreign currency as a means of saving). At the same time, the high key policy rate had a positive effect by attracting investment into hryvnia-denominated bonds. Among global factors, the most significant was the war in the Middle East, which heightened concerns about oil supplies and caused oil prices to rise. Consequently, gas and petrol prices also increased, further raising Ukraine's import costs. However, the main source of support for the hryvnia was expectations of substantial international assistance: at the end of April, the EU's €90 billion package was finally approved, while new agreements with the IMF and EBRD were also under discussion. This will increase reserves and provide additional liquidity to the foreign exchange market.
The NBU's foreign currency sales helped prevent sharp exchange rate movements: the average weekly volume of foreign currency sales in April was approximately $0.83 billion, lower than in March. This helped smooth out spikes in demand from businesses, particularly for import transactions, and households. Narrowing the gap between inflation expectations and actual inflation rates amid the war and rising energy prices remained an important task for the regulator.
Last month, the state budget faced substantial payments, including VAT refunds, defence spending and other expenditures, while inflows of external assistance were also increasing. The war and monthly depreciation of the hryvnia make the dollar an attractive store of value.
The metallurgy and mechanical engineering sectors reduced their sales volumes, while imports of agricultural products and fertilisers continued to grow. Overall, trade remained in deficit — last year, imports of goods ($84.7 billion) were almost twice as high as exports ($40.4 billion). Without substantial foreign currency sales by the NBU, the hryvnia's depreciation would have been more pronounced.
The regulator also published updated forecasts: inflation in 2026 could reach approximately 9.4%. According to official data, net foreign currency sales in April amounted to $3.586 billion. The reduction in foreign currency sales signals an easing of demand-side pressure.
Banks and currency exchange offices offered stable exchange rates throughout the month, while trading volumes remained moderate. High deposit interest rates encouraged people to keep their savings in hryvnias. Rising inflation is strengthening expectations of further depreciation.
If price growth continues at the current pace, the NBU may raise its key policy rate, which, in turn, would support demand for the hryvnia. Interest in the dollar remains consistently high, and it continues to serve as an "anchor" for savings. By the end of April, international reserves had increased to approximately $62.1 billion (from $60.6 billion at the end of March). This provides the regulator with a substantial financial safety buffer.
In May, external financing and the volume of NBU interventions will remain the main drivers of exchange rate movements. The arrival of EU assistance could significantly weaken the exchange rate. At the same time, wartime risks and high fuel imports may keep the hryvnia within its current range. The NBU's forecast for the second quarter confirms a moderately strengthening depreciation trend.
