In June 2026, the official hryvnia exchange rate against the US dollar remained relatively stable, showing moderate depreciation towards the end of the month. The average monthly official exchange rate was around UAH 44.8 per US dollar. At the beginning of the month, on June 1, the official NBU exchange rate was UAH 44.26 per US dollar; in the middle of the month, it fluctuated around UAH 44.35 per US dollar; and on June 11, it reached an all-time high of UAH 44.979 per US dollar, driven by increased demand for foreign currency. As of June 30, the official exchange rate was UAH 44.8476 per US dollar.
Throughout June, the National Bank of Ukraine continued to actively smooth imbalances in the foreign exchange market through currency interventions. Total net foreign currency sales for the month amounted to around US$5.2 billion. The largest volume of interventions was recorded during the week of June 15–19, when the regulator sold US$1.396 billion on the interbank foreign exchange market, the highest weekly figure since March 2026.
The main factor putting pressure on the hryvnia in June remained increased demand for foreign currency from importers, primarily energy sector companies, construction materials suppliers, as well as companies purchasing defence and military-related goods. At the same time, significant inflows of international financial assistance and regular foreign currency interventions by the National Bank offset the structural foreign currency deficit on the interbank market, helping to prevent sharp exchange rate fluctuations and maintain relative stability in the foreign exchange market.
Source: https://bank.gov.ua/
The National Bank of Ukraine maintains sufficient international reserves to support the stability of the foreign exchange market. As of June 1, 2026, international reserves stood at US$45.7 billion, equivalent to approximately 4.7 months of future imports and above generally accepted reserve adequacy criteria. This level of reserves gives the regulator the ability to continue conducting foreign currency interventions to smooth temporary imbalances between supply and demand on the interbank foreign exchange market without significant risks to macrofinancial stability.
An important factor supporting international reserves remains regular inflows of external financing. On June 8, Ukraine received the seventh tranche under the Ukraine Facility programme worth €2.8 billion, aimed at financing the state budget. In addition, in June, Ukraine reached a staff-level agreement with the International Monetary Fund on the next review of the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) programme, opening the possibility of receiving the next tranche of around US$690 million following approval by the IMF Executive Board.
The systematic inflow of international financial assistance helps maintain a high level of international reserves, provides financing for the state budget deficit without resorting to monetary financing, and reduces pressure on the foreign exchange market.
Overall, official international support continues to exceed the country's net foreign currency outflows for imports and external debt servicing. This creates a favourable fundamental balance of foreign currency flows and significantly limits the risks of sharp hryvnia depreciation in the absence of major external or internal shocks.
The foreign exchange market continues to be influenced by seasonal and external factors. The traditional increase in import activity during the summer supports demand for foreign currency, while persistently high geopolitical risks limit economic agents' willingness to take on foreign exchange risk. A positive factor is the decline in global oil prices compared with spring levels, which contributes to an improvement in the trade balance.
In July 2026, the foreign exchange market is expected to remain relatively stable. The key factors limiting depreciation pressure will continue to be sufficient international reserves, predictable inflows of international financial assistance and the National Bank of Ukraine's tight monetary policy. Seasonal growth in import purchases may support demand for foreign currency, but in the absence of a significant deterioration in the security situation or other negative external shocks, fluctuations in the official and market hryvnia exchange rates are expected to remain moderate, while the NBU will continue to smooth them.
Translation into English was created with the help of artificial intelligence.
